Hampton Roads, a region known for its natural beauty, historical significance, and military presence, is facing an existential threat from climate change. The convergence of rising sea levels, increased precipitation, and the potential for more severe storms paints a grim picture for the future of our home. The situation is not just a matter of environmental concern but a pressing socio-economic challenge that could reshape the region’s landscape, both literally and figuratively.
Sea Levels: A Rising Concern
The threat of sea level rise is particularly acute here in Hampton Roads. Our region is experiencing one of the highest rates of relative sea level rise along the East Coast of the United States. The sea level here is rising at a rate of 4.44 millimeters per year, second in the U.S. only to New Orleans, as per the Virginia Institute of Marine Science. Over the last century, the water level has risen by about 1.5 feet, and projections suggest that it could rise by another 1.5 to 7 feet by the end of this century.
At first glance, these figures might seem small, but their cumulative impact would be severe. A rise of a few feet in sea level can translate to the inundation of vast areas of land, especially in flat, low-lying regions like Hampton Roads. Moreover, even a small increase in sea level can significantly amplify the impact of storm surges and high tides, leading to more frequent and severe flooding events. This cumulative effect can cause substantial damage to infrastructure, homes, and businesses, disrupt transportation, and pose serious public health risks.
The causes are manifold: global sea level rise due to melting ice caps and glaciers, local subsidence where the land is sinking, and the potential for changes in ocean currents. The result is a region increasingly prone to flooding, even on sunny days. “Nuisance flooding,” which occurs during high tides and full moons, has become a regular occurrence, disrupting daily life and causing damage to infrastructure, homes, and businesses. The Downtown Tunnel in Norfolk already experiences major flooding during large storms, and this problem is expected to grow worse as the storms that hit our area grow in size and strength.
Storm Surge and Extreme Weather Events
The danger to Hampton Roads is further exacerbated by our susceptibility to hurricanes and nor’easters. These storms can generate significant storm surges that inundate coastal and low-lying areas. The impact of Hurricane Isabel in 2003, which caused over $925 million in damages in Virginia alone, is a stark reminder of our vulnerability. The flooding of the Midtown Tunnel with 44 million gallons of water and its subsequent closure for 4 weeks was just a preview of what could happen as climate change alters our weather patterns.
With climate change, the frequency and intensity of these extreme weather events are expected to increase. The potential for more powerful storms brings with it the risk of more severe flooding and wind damage, posing a significant threat to our region’s infrastructure, economy, and the safety of its residents.
Vulnerable Low-Lying Areas
Our low-lying geography is another aspect that makes Hampton Roads particularly susceptible to the adverse effects of climate change, especially flooding. The danger to our region is not just a theoretical concern but a reality that could lead to severe, possibly permanent flooding in certain areas if climate change continues unabated. Here are some of the areas within Hampton Roads that are at significant risk:
- Chesapeake, Newport News, and Norfolk: These areas have been identified as prone to flooding, with local authorities taking measures such as cleaning or flushing storm drains and ditches to mitigate flood risks. The low-lying areas in these cities are particularly vulnerable during heavy rainfall and storm surges (source).
- Affordable Housing Units: A study by the nonprofit Climate Central revealed that affordable housing in Virginia is among the most vulnerable in the country to flooding and sea level rise. Nearly 1,500 affordable housing units in the state could be at risk of flooding by 2050, with a significant number of these units located in the Hampton Roads area (source).
- Coastal Areas: The coastal areas in Hampton Roads are under threat due to tropical storms, hurricanes, and high tides known as “King Tides,” which most often occur during full-moon cycles late in the year. These natural phenomena, exacerbated by climate change, pose a significant threat to the low-lying coastal regions (source).
- Flood-Risk Zones: The region’s flood-risk zones, as mapped out in various climate vulnerability assessments, show a significant expansion of risk areas under specific sea-level rise scenarios. The continued subsidence of the land is expected to exacerbate the effects of flooding, putting more areas at risk as time progresses (source).
Economic Implications
The economic implications of climate change for Hampton Roads are profound. Our region is home to a bustling port, numerous military installations, and a thriving tourism industry. The Port of Virginia, a critical hub for commerce, is particularly vulnerable to rising sea levels and storm surges. Disruptions to port operations could have ripple effects throughout the regional and national economy.
Moreover, the military installations here in Hampton Roads, including Ft. Eustis, Langley AFB, and Naval Station Norfolk, the largest naval base in the world, are all at risk. The Department of Defense has recognized climate change as a threat multiplier, and the vulnerability of critical military infrastructure could have implications for national security.
Historical and Cultural Heritage at Risk
The historical legacy of Hampton Roads is also at risk. Sites like the Jamestowne colony and the Colonial Parkway are already facing challenges from rising waters. The loss or damage to these sites would be a grave blow to the nation’s historical and cultural heritage.
A Grim Hypothetical: The Surry Scenario
The potential impacts of climate change on Hampton Roads extend beyond flooding and economic disruption. A hypothetical scenario at the Surry Nuclear Power Station (which was recently cited by the NRC for violations related to the failure to inspect replacement parts that were later determined to be faulty prior to installation) illustrates the grave dangers that lie ahead if climate change is not taken seriously.
A Category 5 hurricane, made possible by rising sea temperatures caused by climate change, makes landfall in Hampton Roads.
Given the geographical and hydrological characteristics of Hampton Roads, including its low-lying areas and the presence of significant water bodies, a worst-case scenario from a direct hit by a Category 4-5 hurricane could potentially produce a storm surge in the range of 20 to 30 feet or possibly higher, especially if the storm’s landfall coincides with high tide.
The eye of the massive and powerful storm passes perilously close to the Surry Nuclear Power Station, situated on an 840-acre site on Hog Island near the mouth of the James River. The hurricane’s ferocious winds and torrential rains are accompanied by a devastating storm surge, comparable to the most destructive surges from previous Category 4-5 hurricanes.
As the storm rages, the station, housing two 3-loop Westinghouse pressurized water reactors situated only 9 feet above sea level, is battered by unrelenting winds and rising floodwaters. High tide arrives shortly thereafter, and the storm surge inundates the island, overwhelming the facility’s flood defenses. The power station’s primary and backup power systems are swiftly compromised. The rising waters flood the generator rooms, rendering all backup generators inoperable. The facility plunges into a station blackout, a scenario where all AC power is lost.
The loss of power halts the operation of the cooling systems, crucial for maintaining the reactors at a safe temperature. As the hours tick by, the temperature within the reactor cores begins to rise perilously. The plant’s personnel, battling against the elements, attempt to initiate emergency cooling procedures. However, the extent of the damage and the ongoing storm severely hamper their efforts.
Outside the facility, the storm wreaks havoc across Hampton Roads. Emergency services are overwhelmed, roads are impassable, and communication networks are sporadic at best. The surrounding communities, already grappling with the storm’s fury, are now faced with an escalating nuclear crisis. To make matters worse, the flood protection systems at both the Hampton Roads and Monitor-Merrimac Bridge-Tunnels as well as the Downtown and Midtown Tunnels in Norfolk are overwhelmed by the unprecedented storm surge. The loss of these major arteries, along with severe wind-related damage to the drawbridge section of the James River Bridge, effectively cuts the region in half.
As the situation at Surry deteriorates, the reactor cores reach critical temperatures. Without the necessary cooling, the reactors begin to melt down. The containment structures, designed to hold back radioactive materials, are now the last line of defense against a catastrophic release of radiation.
News of the unfolding disaster at Surry spreads across the nation. The comparisons to the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster are immediate and chilling. The nation watches in horror as the situation grows more dire.
In the following days, as the storm dissipates and the extent of the damage becomes apparent, emergency response teams, including nuclear experts, are dispatched to Surry to assess the situation and initiate containment procedures.
The aftermath of such a scenario for those of us who live here would be catastrophic. The immediate area around the Surry Nuclear Power Station would need to be evacuated, including the nearby towns of Rushmere, Surry, Claremont, and Dendron. The radioactive fallout could spread to larger areas depending on wind and weather conditions, potentially reaching as far as Williamsburg, Newport News, and even parts of Norfolk and Virginia Beach. The long-term environmental, health, and economic consequences would be devastating, with the cleanup and recovery lasting for decades.
Conclusion
The hypothetical scenario above serves as a stark warning of the potential catastrophic consequences of climate change. The time to act is now. Adequate preparation, investment in resilient infrastructure, and a concerted effort to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions are crucial to safeguard the future of Hampton Roads and other vulnerable regions across the globe.
